Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that split the nation and triggered disorder, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly tense and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the political, economic and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue such a time is approaching, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or activists want to engage with the essentials. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, no writer supports unification or the current situation. Both writes two essays that strive for objectivity in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument against, assembling economic and societal figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, levies, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said the writer. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the concept that there could be good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they support unification but refuse increased taxation or introducing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his generation is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, valid points, he said. "One side will prevail in this matter and somebody will eventually lose but all factions has possesses something to learn from the opposing arguments."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, said O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
