Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the tension sparked by the introduction of a new 28-article proposal for resolving the conflict appeared – briefly – to have been contained. A Washington representative spoke of "significant advancement" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its response: an extensive attack of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Diplomacy and Destruction
The chain of opposing developments captured the harsh reality of the recent timeframe. By day, diplomatic battles are conducted: positive announcements are delivered from multiple capitals. Significant resources is devoted on restraining certain initiatives. By night, the Kremlin forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, military action persists as the key method for achieving "settlement".
Nocturnal Warfare
As Russia's attack developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's exposure was laid bare. Ukraine is equipped to monitor projectile deployments from across the border, a capability provided through timely intelligence. From observation points, military aircraft that had been dispatched to counter approaching guided weapons roared overhead – modern combat jets delivered to Ukraine by European allies.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's air-defence systems thundered: defensive missiles deployed against a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, most likely delivered by allied countries. Every deployment jolts you unexpectedly, rattling buildings. The moment of terror quickly transforms into grim resignation: maybe the approaching threat won't strike its target this time, protecting urban areas from catastrophe and further power outages.
Persistent Threats
Not long after, a heavy machine gun engaged a aerial vehicle in the vicinity, part of a defensive team – most likely allied-provided weaponry. Unfortunately, the projectiles didn't strike the enemy aircraft – it pressed on overhead toward its target.
Intermittently, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the daybreak reports: seven people killed, damage and infrastructure problems in multiple buildings as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As customarily, everyone still maintained normal activities – living the war. But those entire period demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on Western support – a reliance that regional partners are evidently unprepared to replace in the short term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The 28-point plan from Washington generated strong feelings, controversy and serious worry – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after previous diplomatic encounters and bilateral conferences.
Every new proposal from Washington adheres to the consistent cycle: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, effectively counters. They contain the crisis but never actually secure success. This pattern will, no doubt, continue.
Strategic Calculations
It is convenient to criticize particular leaders of consistently pushing Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the whole story. Washington operates on a principle well known to international relations experts: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have failed to defend militarily. The American government assumes that it is impossible to compel Moscow to relinquish the land that it already controls in Ukraine's south or east.
The issue is that while acknowledging this situation, US leadership does little to deter Moscow, through statements or actions, from believing that the situation will not change more in its advantage in the months ahead.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Russian leadership is convinced that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its supporters are coming close to fatigue. Their reason to agree to terms that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is close to zero. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will continue as long as Russia's leader remains highly assured in the result.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still hold out, progressively conceding lives and land but preventing a complete military breakdown until conditions improve in its benefit.
Existing Situation
Factually, there are no real preconditions for a armistice. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: political desires to mediate resolution and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Ukrainian leadership's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to unite the population around the country's interests against any proposal Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their attention does not shift toward homefront challenges. And although their task will now be much harder after current events, it remains highly unlikely that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These conflicting dynamics are influencing discussions.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a mere seven days to terminate the proposed articles of the most recent proposal. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by US administration, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with pacifying measures of negotiators, and finally, latest revelations, all served their function.
While new initiatives based on old ideas are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and show particular unwillingness to alter the situation, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the coming months, primarily depend on ongoing international assistance.
